Windows Phone bigger than iOS and BlackBerry by 2015

Today IDC released their new mobile market forecasts. Neither the fact the smartphone market is supposed to grow in 2011 nor the forecast the Android market share will keep increasing are surprising.  But their 2015 forecast is rather unexpected. IDC expects by that time Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will have a market share of about 21%. Still far behind Android which is supposed to have a market share of about 45% by then, but Windows is supposed to be bigger than iOS and BlackBerry. For many mobile software developers this might mean they will have to consider a focus shift.

Will the Nokia – Microsoft deal change the market

Especially the Windows Phone forecast seems surprising. In the past years Microsoft has lost its market share. Till today the introduction of Windows Phone 7 didn’t manage to change that. But Microsoft seems not really to care. Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone is expected to have significant implications for the smartphone market.

“Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences.”  (IDC, Ramon Llamas)

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Microsoft could be preparing silently for the market change

In our opinion it’s rather possible Microsoft is just waiting for Windows Phone 8. You can read many rumors about it like Winrumor’s post. Just imagine the following. Early 2012 Nokia will release a great Windows Phone 8 based smartphone and probably a Windows Phone 8 based tablet will be introduced as well. This could dramatically change the market. If this will happen IDC’s figures could come true. We’re really curious what Microsoft’s approach will be. As we mentioned before with the launch of Windows Mobile it seemed Microsoft focuses on integrating desktop functionality on the mobile device. That could be the winning approach.

“The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.” (IDC, Ramon Llamas)

Fact is that for example at CeBIT in Hannover this year we noticed many big brands, among others Dell and Yahoo!, explicitly showed their Windows Phone 7 support. That gave us the feeling something is happening behind the scenes for sure.

What do you think about this forecast? Do you believe Microsoft will manage such an amazing come-back? We invite you to share your opinion below or discuss with us on Twitter: @Goyello.

VP Software Development Europe for Aspire Systems. Sociologist and electrotechnical engineer, a great combination that stimulates him to look for the best working software solutions for clients. Passionate about converting great ideas into new solutions. Married and a proud father of 3 great sons. Training for and participating in triathlons/runs to stay fit.